Thursday’s Markets have largely shrugged off the impeachment of President Donald Trump, with modest gains through afternoon trading as all signs point to his acquittal in the Senate.
As a result, there are likely to be few if any negative impacts on the direction of the country, business, monetary and regulatory policies, and vis-a-vis the stock market.
Instead, investors are more tuned into recent developments, such as the phase one portion of a new trade deal with China, which should help propel markets upward, particularly when the next phase is completed.
“Trump needed his victories. He’s got (the USMCA trade deal), we got a China deal, and we got a budget. He got all these victories while he was under impeachment,” Strategas head of policy research Daniel Clifton told CNBC.
The House voted along party lines to impeach Trump late Wednesday for abuse of power and obstructing Congress. He is just the third president in history to be impeached, along with Bill Clinton and Andrew Johnson, though, none have been found guilty in the Senate and removed from office. Richard Nixon would have been impeached and likely removed over the Watergate scandal, but he ended up resigning first.
“Investors have virtually ignored what’s going on in Congress. They care about the economy. They care about profits. They care about trade and if they thought the president was in serious jeopardy of losing his job, they’d care,” Cresset Wealth Advisors Chief Investment Officer Jack Ablin said. “It’s just a disruption, removing a president. It would probably undermine the value of the dollar, create some uncertainty and make (Vice President Mike) Pence the president.”
Ablin noted the economy is sending mixed signals.
“We’re looking really at first quarter data and the election,” he said. “The strong data is getting a little bit weaker, which was the labor market and consumer. And the weaker data, like the manufacturing, production data, is getting a bit stronger.”
Since the impeachment inquiry was announced on Oct. 21, the S&P 500 is up 5% and it has hit record high after record high. Today, the index rose above 3,200 for the first time ever, and sat at 3,203 at 1:45 p.m. EST.
“(Impeachment) is not going to affect monetary policy or fiscal policy, and people think it’s not going to happen. It’s more of an embarrassment,” Bannockburn Global Forex Chief Market Strategist Marc Chandler said. “In the first 100 years, they only tried to impeach Johnson. It’s what it means for American politics.
“I think the more important thing is policy, and what’s going on in the interest rate differentials. I just don’t see how the substance has relevance for foreign exchange. Unless you think Trump is going to be removed, it’s American political noise.”