Hayman Capital founder and hedge fund manager J. Kyle Bass says a recession in 2020 is inevitable unless the federal government is able to put together a new infrastructure plan worth about a trillion dollars.
“My opinion is unless Trump gets a, call it trillion-dollar infrastructure plan put into place, it’s almost inevitable that we have a recession in 2020.”
JPMorgan also released its latest recession probability forecast this week, which said the U.S. has a 27.6 percent chance of a recession in the next year and a 70 percent chance of recession by 2020.
Per Yahoo Finance:
“[When] you think about the net effect of the tax plan, we think about it in the net rate of change of stimulus,” Bass told Yahoo Finance in an exclusive interview. “So, in 2018, the net stimulative effect of the tax cuts was roughly $250 billion stimulus to the U.S. Next year, it will be roughly $400 billion. And then, in 2020, it will be $150 billion. So, if you think about the rate of change from this year to next, it will be plus $150 [billion], from 2019 to 2020, it will be minus $250 [billion].
“My opinion is unless Trump gets a, call it trillion-dollar infrastructure plan put into place, it’s almost inevitable that we have a recession in 2020.”
Bass gained notoriety for correctly betting against subprime assets ahead of the financial crisis.
Regarding monetary policy, Bass said that the Federal Reserve is doing a “darn good job of trying to thread this needle.” He added that they’re trying to raise rates to a level where they can meaningfully cut them when the next recession hits.
“When rates are 2.5%, you can’t cut them 500 basis points. I think the Fed is concerned about two things — stimulating at full employment [and] growing the fiscal deficit at full employment,” Bass said. “When you do those things, you always get inflation.
“On the other side of things, I think they’re trying to normalize rates, so they have a few arrows in the quiver for if and when we stumble. Again, if we don’t add stimulus between 2019 and 2020, it looks to us like a recession is imminent.”
Adding stimulus in the form of further tax cuts will be next to impossible given the fact that Democrats take control of the House of Representatives in January. However, there is strong hope for a bipartisan infrastructure deal.
House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) has said an infrastructure and jobs package is a top priority for her party. Transportation also is considered common ground between Trump and congressional Democrats alike.
Regarding inflation, the AP reported Tuesday that U.S. wholesale prices rose just 0.1 percent in November, down sharply from October’s 0.6 percent, a sign that inflation is in check.